The Oregon Transportation Commission rebuked officials with the Interstate Bridge Replacement (IBR) program on Jan. 22 for keeping the project’s rapidly rising preliminary cost estimates out of public view. Commissioners questioned the project’s viability amid growing concerns that the $6-billion price tag could more than double before construction begins.
Still, the effort to replace the Interstate 5 bridge connecting Washington and Oregon across the Columbia River continues. A Jan. 19 ruling by the U.S. Coast Guard approved a fixed-bridge design, and IBR plans to issue a request for proposals to contractors by the end of 2026.
Funding remains the central challenge. The most recent publicly released cost analysis for the five-mile IBR program dates to 2022 and ranged from $5 billion to $7.5 billion, with $6 billion frequently cited. An Aug. 15, 2025, consultant’s report prepared for IBR estimated costs have at least doubled to $12.2 billion and could reach $17.7 billion. The fixed-bridge estimate in the report is closer to $13 billion.
Carley Frances, interim IBR program administrator, said the estimates have not been fully vetted and she does not expect updated figures until March 2026. She acknowledged to the commission that “costs are definitely going to go up,” reflecting nationwide construction inflation.
The four-member commission openly questioned if the project would be able to proceed due to the ballooning costs of the project.
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“I just don’t see a $12-billion to $16-billion project being viable,” said Commissioner Lee Beyer. “I’m concerned about the numbers jumping that far this fast. If those numbers are correct, there’s no way we can do this project. There’s just not the money.”
Transparency Concerns
Beyond funding issues, commissioners sharply criticized IBR leadership for failing to disclose the new estimates. Although the 2025 consultant’s report circulated internally, it was not publicly discussed or shared with the commission during meetings late last year when the commission asked pointed questions about the budget.
Joseph Cortright, a Portland economist and critic of the project, obtained the report through a public records request. The Oregon Journalism Project later reported on the findings, alerting commissioners of the project’s spiraling costs.
“Let’s be really honest here,” commission Chair Julie Brown said, addressing Frances and Ray Mabey, assistant IBR program administrator. “It is a shock to us to find out the way we did. You put us all in a bad situation. The staff shouldn’t try to hide something.”
Frances, who at the time of the Jan. 22 meeting had been in her position for nine days, said the document was part of an internal workshopping process and emphasized that more analysis is needed, particularly because the fixed-bridge design was not approved until this month. She declined to discuss specific cost figures.
Baker said the information presented through the second half of 2025 was outdated, adding that IBR continued to reference economic valuations based on a $6-billion estimate without acknowledging that internal projections showed costs likely doubling or more.
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IBR officials said the Coast Guard’s approval of a fixed bridge with a navigational clearance of 116 feet allows the program to proceed with a final environmental impact statement as it moves toward a record of decision tied to a Sept. 30 federal grant amendment deadline.
IBR plans to announce updated cost estimates in March and has shifted to a progressive design-build delivery model. Frances said the approach will allow early contractor involvement rather than embedding risk premiums in bids. Mabey said IBR may issue a request for qualifications ahead of the formal RFP and already knows of at least two teams forming, with a possible third—more interest than expected under the previous delivery model.
Baker said that without additional funding from the two state legislatures, IBR must operate within existing financial commitments. More than $4 billion has already been committed through federal grants and appropriations from Oregon and Washington, not including tolling revenues projected to exceed $1 billion.
The project has received a $1.5-billion Federal Highway Administration Bridge Investment Program grant, a $600-million U.S. Department of Transportation Mega grant and a $30-million Reconnecting Communities grant awarded in 2025 to the city of Vancouver and the Washington State Department of Transportation for improvements tied to the IBR program.
Federal grant funding would be forfeited if construction does not begin in 2026.
